Report: Coalition ‘unelectable’ if it doesn’t get better on climate
New analysis shows the pathway to government for the Coalition at future elections must include matching or beating Labor and other parties on climate policy.
The analysis, undertaken by Solutions for Climate Australia, overlays the new list of marginal electorates with seat-by-seat data on voter satisfaction with the previous Coalition government’s climate target (YouGov poll by Australian Conservation Foundation in January 2022). It shows that voters in 15 of the 18 most marginal seats not currently held by the Coalition are above the national average in wanting to see better climate policy from the federal government.
Even if the government were to leapfrog the eight seats that were lost by the Coalition to teal Independents or the Greens in Brisbane and Ryan, they would still need to re-win new Labor suburban seats like Boothby, Higgins, Bennelong and Chisholm. These were seats specifically identified by Labor national secretary Paul Erickson as electorates where climate policy was particularly impactful on vote preferences.
The only other pathway for a Coalition win would be to try to secure a large number of wins from Labor seats with margins of between 6.9 and 17 per cent, most of which also have above average voter preference for strong climate policies.
The analysis also shows the Coalition faces the additional risk of losing more seats to parties with better climate policy at future elections, with voters demonstrating above average climate concern in all six of the Coalition’s most marginal seats - Deakin, Menzies, Sturt, Moore, Casey and Dickson. There are also risks for seats like Bradfield, the formerly safe Liberal seat on the Sydney north shore, which remained with the Liberals, but which had a major swing in the May election to a late running teal candidate.
Solutions for Climate Australia director Dr Barry Traill says the key question for the Coalition’s future now is how they will approach climate.
“Australia desperately needs a federal bipartisan space on climate. Over the next three years, the world will accelerate even faster into new, cheaper renewables and associated industries and jobs. With each year, climate change disasters are increasing in scale and frequency and will likely hit home to more Australians in more electorates through heat-waves, floods, droughts and fires.’
‘Other issues will of course also influence voters. Cost of living was a top tier issue in the election in May along with climate in large numbers of electorates. It is more than reasonable to expect that in the 2025 election and beyond, climate policies will remain a key issue for voters.’
“It’s extremely likely the Coalition will remain unelectable with a grudging set of patchy policies on climate like those of the previous Morrison Government. The Federal Coalition parties need to catch up with their state Liberal colleagues in NSW, South Australia, Tasmania and now Victoria, and embrace much stronger and proactive climate policies.
“Voters in Liberal seats will likely remember missed opportunities for bipartisanship, like the current climate target bill, when they next go to the polling booths.”
ENDS
Background: The two attached graphs show data comparing climate sentiment by electorate with swings at the May election, and then the same with the new margins by seats. Climate sentiment in electorates was measured by a question from a poll by the Australian Conservation Foundation in January 2020. The question analysed the proportion of voters who selected ‘Too little too late’ when asked whether the (former Coalition) federal Government target of net zero 2050 was adequate (the full question is on the graphs).
